Outclassing a legend: Rolfe key to Fire's resurgence

Soccer Betting Lines

11/05/2007 - Bridgeview, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a certain player in the lineup this season, the Chicago Fire are 10-4-8, while scoring 25 goals. Without this player, the team is 1-6-2 while scoring just six goals over that span.

With a certain player in the lineup, the Chicago Fire knocked off the top seed in the Major League Soccer playoffs to advance to the Eastern Conference final, scheduled to be played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. on Thursday.

With a certain player in the lineup, the Chicago Fire are currently on a 10- game unbeaten streak, the second-longest in team history.

No, that player is not the team's designated player signing and Mexican superstar Cuauhtemoc Blanco, who helped the club to a 6-2-7 record since his arrival on July 29.

That player is American forward Chris Rolfe.

"As far as I am concerned, I think we have proved that we are not Cuauhtemoc Blanco's team," said Chicago coach Juan Carlos Osorio, who coached his first game for the fired Dave Sarachan in Blanco's first match with the team. "He plays on our team and we are more than happy with that, but we have many other tools now. Chris Rolfe's contribution has been crucial."

The Fire actually started the season as one of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference, going 3-1-2 under Sarachan. But in that seventh league match on May 12, Rolfe injured his ankle and missed the next nine league fixtures.

At the time, Rolfe was tied with New England's Taylor Twellman for the league- lead in goals, with four after just six matches. After Rolfe's injury, the team went on a horrific slide, losing six of nine while collecting just one win in that span, costing Sarachan the job he'd held since 2003.

"It was very difficult," Rolfe said of his injury. "At the start of the season I was influential in some of the wins we had and I thought that I could help the team, obviously in an area that we were struggling, which was goal scoring. That is something that I thought I could have been helping with."

Since his return to the lineup on Aug. 4, however, the Fire have been one of the hottest teams in the league - with Blanco getting most of the credit for the turnaround.

"We had faith that we had a good group to start with," Rolfe said, "and we're bringing in some good players (Blanco, defender Wilman Conde and forward Paulo Wanchope) and a new coach (Osorio) and we were confident the whole time that we had a chance at this (a berth in the Eastern finals)."

For all the credit that Blanco gets, his four goals and eight assists in 16 starts since his arrival aren't as impressive as Rolfe's eight goals and three assists in 18 starts this season.

"That's great. Obviously that's great," Rolfe said. "That's something that I should be doing with the role that I have on this team. I should be scoring goals, so I'm just doing what I'm supposed to do really."

And while Rolfe's two playoff goals vs. D.C. were crucial in the team advancing to the Eastern final, 4-2 in the total-goals, home-and-home semifinal series, his defensive work from his forward position has also been key.

"I think for an offensive minded player, his contribution defensively is immense," Osorio said. "It's huge, and we all appreciate it very much in this team."

It's about time people outside the team started appreciating what this home- grown player is doing in MLS this season.

Namely, outclassing a legend.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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