Line of Scrimmage: Week 14 - Weighing in on StarCaps

Football Betting Lines

12/03/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After his team defeated the Chicago Bears to take over first place in the NFC North this past Sunday night, Minnesota Vikings head coach Brad Childress told the media he celebrated by having "a vodka as big as your head."

Just three days after that win, you have to believe Childress is ready to hit the bottle again, for an entirely different reason.

In a decision that has hung like an albatross over the collective heads of the Vikings for weeks, star Minnesota defensive tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams were among a group of players officially suspended for four games on Tuesday after testing positive for Bumetanide, a banned diuretic contained in the weight-loss supplement StarCaps, which has since been taken off the market.

The makers of StarCaps are in hot water after claiming that the supplement did not contain the banned substance, but have managed to avoid becoming the biggest villains in this saga.

That would be the National Football League, which has admitted that its doctor in charge of administering the league steroid policy, Dr. John Lombardo, long withheld knowledge that the supplement contained a banned substance to NFL teams.

Due to this revelation, both Williams' and several other suspended players were expected to file lawsuits against the league and Lombardo on Wednesday, with lawyers for the players seeking an injunction to allow them to play football pending the result of that litigation.

Maybe the legal wrangling will work for the players, and maybe it won't, but there is no getting around the fact that the NFL has made itself look downright awful in this situation.

Yes, players are responsible for the substances they put in their body, and since StarCaps was not on a list of league-approved supplements, the players cannot claim zero liability in testing positive for the diuretic. Ignorance is not a viable excuse, and if it was, you'd have players lined up around the block saying they didn't know the ingredients of substances ranging from marijuana to black tar heroin.

But since the league clearly knew about the problems with StarCaps and didn't explicitly circulate a league-wide bulletin about its dangers, then it needs to issue a mea culpa for the fact that Lombardo is either a) incompetent for not alerting the players and teams to the problem b) malicious, in a way that suggests the league was trying to trap players into testing positive as a way to send a message about the use of non-league-approved substances.

The other point to note is that we are not talking about bodybuilding, Bonds and McGwire-style steroids here. We're effectively talking about weight-loss supplements that gigantic players like the Williams' were likely taking in order to keep their mass tonnage down. Bumetanide is supposedly a masking agent for steroids, but it should be clear to anyone who's seen Pat Williams' less-than-Adonis-like physique that his reasons for taking StarCaps had little to do with attaining greater strength or muscle mass.

What both parties in this case need to do here is admit mutual fault and chalk it up to offsetting penalties. The league needs to admit that it committed a sin of omission by not notifying the players, and the players must rededicate themselves to understanding that manufacturers of supplements and related substances might not be fully disclosing the ingredients of their products.

All the events of Tuesday did was weaken a first-place team as it attempts to make a final push toward a division title, while making a league that seems to be taking more severe public relations hits at each passing turn look that much worse.

No one has won here, and the contest needs to be ruled a tie and put to bed.

Let's take a look at the week that will be in the National Football League:

WEEKLY SEED REPORT

A look at what the playoffs would look like if the season ended today:

AFC

1 - Tennessee (11-1) 2 - Pittsburgh (9-3) 3 - N.Y. Jets (8-4) 4 - Denver (7-5) 5 - Indianapolis (8-4) 6 - Baltimore (8-4)

NFC

1 - N.Y. Giants (11-1) 2 - Tampa Bay (9-3) 3 - Minnesota (7-5) 4 - Arizona (7-5) 5 - Carolina (9-3) 6 - Atlanta (8-4)

NFL POWER POLL

The Sportsbook Betting Lines's updated NFL Power Poll, which ranks all 32 league teams, can be found at:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/misc/nfl- poll.htm

FANTASY FOCUS

Find Fantasy Editor Steve Schwarz's latest analysis at:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= fantasy/index.aspx

SUICIDE POOL PIX

1. San Diego (vs. Oakland) - Finally, the Chargers have found a team they can run the football against.

2. Tennessee (vs. Cleveland) - With a third-string quarterback and no Kellen Winslow, you can forget about the Browns mounting an upset.

3. Arizona (vs. St. Louis) - Cardinals have blown two chances to wrap up the NFC West, and won't squander a third.

THE GAMES

I was 11-5 in my picks last week, also going 11-5 against the spread to get back on the horse. Starting off 3-0 with the three Thanksgiving blowouts was a nice start. The record on the year is now 124-68 (.646) overall, and 109-78-5 (.581) with Vegas involved.

Oakland (3-9) at San Diego (4-8), Thursday, 8:15 (San Diego -10)

Storylines: Chargers are one loss from their first losing season since 2003, and will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and a Denver win this week...Raiders have lost 10 straight games to the Chargers, and are 0-5 in San Diego since last winning there in 2002...San Diego has an 11-game winning streak in the month of December...Oakland is last in the NFL in passing offense (139.5 yards per game), third-down percentage (25.3), and is tied for last in touchdown passes (7)...Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for a season-high 106 yards in San Diego's come-from-behind 28-18 win at Oakland on Sept. 28...Raiders wide receivers did not post a single receiving yard in last week's loss to the Chiefs...San Diego is allowing opponents to complete a league-high 69.3 percent of their passes... Leading Oakland sack man Kalimba Edwards (hip) is questionable for Thursday... Chargers punter Mike Scifres leads the NFL in net punting average (41.9).

Fast Fact: Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson has topped 100 rushing yards in five of his last six meetings against the Raiders, including a season-high 106 yards in Oakland in Week 4.

Prediction: The ability to run the football and pressure JaMarcus Russell will allow the Bolts to maintain control. Chargers 27, Raiders 10.

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Jacksonville (4-8) at Chicago (6-6), Sunday, 1:00 (Chicago -6)

Storylines: Bears begin play a game back of first-place Minnesota in the NFC North...Jaguars will clinch their first losing season since 2003 with another defeat...Chicago quarterback Kyle Orton is 1-2 as a starter since returning from an ankle injury on Nov. 16th, and has thrown for 153 yards or less in all three games since returning...Jaguars wide receiver Matt Jones expected to play pending appeal of a three-game suspension for violating the NFL substance abuse policy...Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard is 252 yards shy of his first career, 3,000-yard-passing season...Chicago is No. 1 in the league in takeaways (26), and the Bears lead the league in touchdowns off of fumble returns (3) and blocked punts (2)...Jacksonville cornerback Rashean Mathis (sprained knee) was expected to be placed on season-ending injured reserve with an injury suffered in last week's loss to the Texans...Jaguars linebacker Mike Peterson is the older brother of Bears running back Adrian Peterson.

Fast Fact: The Jaguars (10 TD passes) need to throw seven touchdown passes over their final four games to avoid establishing a franchise single-season low in that category, replacing the 16 scoring strikes the team threw in the 1999 season.

Prediction: Bears still have much to play for, while Jaguars showed on Monday night against Texans they've pretty much packed it in. Bears 24, Jaguars 12.

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Minnesota (7-5) at Detroit (0-12), Sunday, 1:00 (Minnesota -10)

Storylines: Minnesota owns a one-game lead over Chicago in the NFC North... Vikings defensive tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams considered questionable pending an injunction on their four-game suspension handed down on Tuesday for use of a banned diuretic...Lions trying to avoid first 0-13 start in team history, and posting just the fifth 0-13 start in league annals... Vikings running back Adrian Peterson leads the NFL in rushing yards (1311)...Lions are last in the league in scoring defense (32.8 points per game), rushing defense (176.9 yards per game), touchdowns allowed (47), sacks allowed (45), rushing touchdowns allowed (22), yards allowed per carry (5.1), rushes allowed of 20 yards or longer (19), and have had an NFL-high five interceptions returned for touchdowns (5)...Lions defense has intercepted an NFL-low two passes...Minnesota has had a league-worst four punt returns brought back for touchdowns this season...Vikings linebacker Ben Leber is tied for the league lead in defensive fumble recoveries (4)...Minnesota is tied for the league lead in safeties recorded (3)...Vikings will also be without end Brian Robison (knee) on Sunday...Lions signed ex-Panthers wideout Keary Colbert earlier this week, and placed Mike Furrey (concussion) on season- ending injured reserve.

Fast Fact: Since departing Minnesota following the 2005 season, current Lions quarterback Daunte Culpepper's lone 300-yard passing day came in a 29-22 Raiders loss to the Vikings on Nov. 18, 2007, when he threw for 344 yards.

Prediction: Lions will have a real opportunity to win if the Williams' don't play, but won't stop Peterson when it matters. Vikings 20, Lions 17.

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Houston (5-7) at Green Bay (5-7), Sunday, 1:00 (Green Bay -6)

Storylines: Packers have lost four of their last five and are two games back of the Vikings in the NFC North...Houston quarterback Matt Schaub (knee) will return to the starting lineup after missing the last four games...Texans will clinch their seventh non-winning season in as many years of existence with their next loss...Packers running back Ryan Grant (thumb) considered questionable after missing the second half of last week's loss to Carolina... Houston running back Steve Slaton is the reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week after rushing for 130 yards and two touchdowns in a Monday night win over Jacksonville...Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson leads the NFL in receiving yards (1146) and receptions (88)...Houston quarterbacks have thrown a league- high 18 interceptions on the season...Packers have scored an NFL-best six touchdowns off of interception returns...Houston is allowing opponents to complete a league-high 90 percent of fourth-down opportunities...Packers cut punter Derrick Frost earlier this week.

Fast Fact: A Houston-based franchise has not traveled to Green Bay since the Oilers dealt the Packers a 31-3 setback at Lambeau Field in 1986.

Prediction: On a short week with a rusty quarterback, Texans will clinch non- winning season number seven. Packers 28, Texans 21.

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Cincinnati (1-10-1) at Indianapolis (8-4), Sunday, 1:00 (Indianapolis -13)

Storylines: Colts have won five straight since a 3-4 start, with each win during the streak coming by six points or fewer...Cincinnati quarterback Carson Palmer (elbow) will miss his ninth game of the year, and eighth consecutive, with Ryan Fitzpatrick again slated to make the start behind center...Colts safety Bob Sanders (knee) could return to the lineup...Bengals are 0-6 on the road this season...Bengals are last in the league in total offense (232.4 yards per game), scoring offense (12.6 points per game), and rushing touchdowns (4)...Indianapolis has allowed an NFL-low four touchdown passes...Colts are No. 1 in the NFL in third-down percentage (49.0), and last in opponents' third-down percentage (48.8)...Indianapolis has lost an NFL-low two fumbles on the season...Bengals placed safety Marvin White (knee) on season-ending injured reserve earlier this week, and signed veteran linebacker Victor Hobson on Wednesday...Indianapolis middle linebacker Gary Brackett (ankle) not expected to play on Sunday...Colts signed ex-Vikings linebacker Rufus Alexander on Tuesday.

Fast Fact: The Colts' Tony Dungy is 5-0 against the Bengals in his career as a head coach.

Prediction: Bengals will move the football a bit better than usual on a Colts team that hasn't been blowing people out. Colts 27, Bengals 17.

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Atlanta (8-4) at New Orleans (6-6), Sunday, 1:00 (New Orleans -3)

Storylines: Falcons are a game back of Carolina and Tampa Bay for NFC South lead, and currently occupy NFC's final Wild Card spot...Saints running back Deuce McAllister and end Will Smith considered questionable to play pending an injunction on their four-game suspension handed down on Tuesday for use of a banned diuretic...Saints quarterback Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing yards (3870), is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes (24), and remains on pace to break Dan Marino's NFL single-season record for passing yards (5,084 in 1984)...New Orleans is No. 1 in the league in total offense (405.2 yards per game), passing offense (316.9 yards per game) and touchdowns scored (41)...Falcons running back Michael Turner is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (13) and touchdowns (13)...The Saints' Reggie Bush leads the NFL in punt return average (17.9) and punt return touchdowns (3)...Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jackson will play after having a pending four-game suspension for use of a banned diuretic deferred until next season...Saints safety Kevin Kaesviharn (neck/shoulder) out for Sunday.

Fast Fact: The Falcons are 0-4 in New Orleans since last winning there in 2002.

Prediction: Falcons were a better team than the Saints when these teams met a month ago, and still are. Falcons 30, Saints 22.

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Philadelphia (6-5-1) at N.Y. Giants (11-1), Sunday, 1:00 (N.Y. Giants -7)

Storylines: Giants will clinch NFC East with a win or a Cowboys loss, and will clinch a first-round playoff bye with a win...New York placed wide receiver Plaxico Burress on reserve/non-football injury list on Tuesday, also suspending him for the remainder of the season following shooting incident in Manhattan last Saturday morning...New York is 6-0 at home this season...Giants lead the league in scoring offense (29.2 points per game), rushing offense (160.2 yards per game), yards per carry (4.9), and rushes of 20 yards or longer (19)...Eagles running back Brian Westbrook is the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week after becoming the first player since 1975 to score two rushing touchdowns, two receiving touchdowns, and rush for 100 yards in last Thursday's win over the Cardinals...Nick Cole expected to start at right guard in place of injured Eagles Shawn Andrews (back) and Max Jean- Gilles (ankle)...Eagles cornerback Asante Samuel (neck) questionable to return for Sunday...Giants kicker John Carney leads the NFL in scoring (114 points).

Fast Fact: With two more touchdown passes, Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb (18 TDs) will have thrown 20 touchdowns in a season for just the second time in the last seven years.

Prediction: Eagles will come to play in an effort to save their season, but won't finish off enough drives to pull the upset. Giants 19, Eagles 16.

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Cleveland (4-8) at Tennessee (11-1), Sunday, 1:00 (Tennessee -13)

Storylines: Ken Dorsey will make his first start in a Cleveland uniform after season-ending injuries sidelined Brady Quinn (finger) and Derek Anderson (knee)...Tennessee, which is seeking its first 12-1 start in franchise history, clinches AFC South title with a win or an Indianapolis loss, and clinches a first-round playoff bye with a win and a loss for the Jets or Colts...Browns tight end Kellen Winslow (high ankle sprain) ruled out for Sunday... Titans running back LenDale White is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns (13) and touchdowns (13)...Titans rookie running back Chris Johnson needs 42 yards for first career 1,000-yard rushing season...Tennessee has scored a league-best 20 rushing touchdowns on the year...Browns quarterbacks are completing a league-worst 49.9 percent of their passes... Titans have suffered a league-low-tying eight sacks on the year...Tennessee is No. 1 in the NFL in turnover margin (+13)...Browns signed ex-Buccaneer Bruce Gradkowski to serve as Dorsey's backup on Tuesday.

Fast Fact: In his most recent NFL start (11/27/05), current Brown and then-49ers quarterback Ken Dorsey set career-highs for completions (23) and attempts (43) in San Francisco's 33-22 loss at the Tennessee Titans.

Prediction: Dorsey's first start in more than three years happens to come against one of the league's top defenses. Titans 34, Browns 7.

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Miami (7-5) at Buffalo (6-6), Toronto, Sunday, 4:05 (Buffalo -1)

Storylines: Bills play first regular season game at Toronto's Rogers Centre as part of a five-year agreement with the City running through 2012...Dolphins are one game out of final AFC Wild Card spot as Week 14 begins...Last-place Bills have lost five of six since a 5-1 start...Bills quarterback Trent Edwards (groin) considered questionable after sitting out the second half of last week's 10-3 loss to the 49ers, and J.P. Losman would make his first start of the year if Edwards is unavailable...Former Toronto Argonaut and current Dolphin Ricky Williams returns to his former home stadium... Bills running back Marshawn Lynch, who has averaged 110 rushing yards over his past three games, needs 156 yards to eclipse 1,000 for the second straight year... Dolphins left guard Justin Smiley (broken leg) was lost for the season in last week's win over the Rams...Miami has committed an NFL-low 10 turnovers on the season...Dolphins defensive back Jason Allen (broken hand) expected to miss Sunday's contest...Bills defensive backs Jabari Greer (knee) and Donte Whitner (shoulder) both questionable for Sunday, as is defensive end Aaron Schobel (foot), who has missed seven straight games.

Fast Fact: On the last three occasions in which the Dolphins won the front end of their home-and-home with the Bills (2000, 2001, 2003), Miami also won the return match, by a composite score of 87-16.

Prediction: Dolphins can see the path to the playoffs clearly, and won't miss on an opportunity to deliver knockout blow to fading Bills. Dolphins 20, Bills 19.

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Kansas City (2-10) at Denver (7-5), Sunday, 4:05 (Denver -9)

Storylines: Broncos will clinch the AFC West and their first playoff berth since 2005 with a win and a Chargers loss on Thursday night...Denver has a three-game losing streak at home since Oct. 5 win over Tampa Bay...Chiefs are 0-7 in Denver since last winning there in 2000...Chiefs ended a seven-game losing streak with last week's 20-13 win at Oakland, and are attempting to win road games on back-to-back weeks for the first time since December of 2004... Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey (groin) could return after missing the last five games, and linebackers Nate Webster (knee), D.J. Williams (knee), and Spencer Larsen (hip) are all questionable...Kansas City is last in NFL total defense (395 yards per game) and sacks recorded (6)...Denver is last in the NFL of rushes of 20 yards or longer (2)...Broncos have suffered a league-low- tying eight sacks on the year...Broncos are last in the league in takeaways (12) ...Chiefs have forced an NFL-high-tying 13 lost fumbles...Kansas City defensive back Maurice Leggett is the reigning AFC Special Teams Player of the week after scoring a touchdown off an errant Oakland field goal attempt last week.

Fast Fact: The last time the Chiefs had a chance to complete a home-and-home sweep of the Broncos (2003), Kansas City was a 45-27 loser at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Prediction: Oddsmakers must not remember the Chiefs' 14-point win over the Broncos earlier this season - Kansas City will give Denver another game. Broncos 34, Chiefs 31.

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New England (7-5) at Seattle (2-10), Sunday, 4:05 (New England -5)

Storylines: Patriots, who have won 13 consecutive regular season games against NFC foes, are one game out of final Wild Card spot in the AFC...New England head coach Bill Belichick striving for his 150th career win...Seahawks have lost five straight since a win at San Francisco on Oct. 26, and are 0-4 at home since beating the Rams there on Sept 21...Win over Rams was also the most recent win as a starter for quarterback and New England native Matt Hasselbeck...Seahawks wide receiver Deion Branch, who engaged in a contract holdout with the Patriots before being traded in September of 2006, faces his former team for the first time...Seattle is last in NFL passing defense (265.2 yards per game)...Patriots re-signed former starting outside linebacker Rosevelt Colvin on Wednesday...Seahawks are expected to be without center Chris Spencer (back) and guard Mike Wahle (shoulder) on Sunday, and both players are likely headed to season-ending injured reserve...Linebacker Adalius Thomas (knee) remains out for New England.

Fast Fact: During the Bill Belichick era in New England, the Patriots are a combined 7-1 against the four current members of the NFC West, including their win over St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI.

Prediction: Seahawks simply do nothing well at this stage, and Patriots will expose them for it. Patriots 23, Seahawks 13.

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N.Y. Jets (8-4) at San Francisco (4-8), Sunday, 4:05 (N.Y. Jets -4)

Storylines: Jets lead Dolphins and Patriots by one game in the AFC East... 49ers will clinch their sixth consecutive losing season with their next defeat...Jets quarterback Brett Favre, who needs 292 passing yards to top 3,000 for the 17th consecutive season, looks to move to 8-0 against 49ers in regular season games...49ers quarterback Shaun Hill has a 94.6 passer rating since taking over for J.T. O'Sullivan...Jets running back Thomas Jones is tied for the NFL lead in touchdowns (13) and has scored a TD in six consecutive games...49ers running back Frank Gore needs 74 rushing yards to top 1,000 for the third consecutive season...Jets lead the NFL in completion percentage (68.4)...San Francisco has committed an NFL-high 28 turnovers, including a league-worst 14 fumbles lost, and is last in the league in turnover margin (-13)...49ers lead the league in touchdowns off of blocked field goals (2)...Jets linebacker David Harris (groin) considered questionable to return after missing the last five games...49ers linebacker Patrick Willis (ribs) questionable for Sunday.

Fast Fact: The only Jets quarterback to win a road start against the 49ers was Richard Todd, who led Gang Green to a 27-13 win at Candlestick Park on Oct. 30, 1983.

Prediction: Jets have bounced back quickly from previous poor efforts, and will do the same one week after laying an egg against Broncos. Jets 37, 49ers 16.

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St. Louis (2-10) at Arizona (7-5), Sunday, 4:15 (Arizona -13)

Storylines: Arizona, which has lost two in a row, clinches its first division title since 1975 with a win or a San Francisco loss...Rams have lost six straight since winning their first two under head coach Jim Haslett, and are 1-5 on the road this season...Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who is tied for the NFL lead in touchdown passes (24), needs 259 passing yards to top 4,000 for the third time in his career, and first since 2001...St. Louis is last in the league in touchdowns scored (13), and is tied for last in touchdown passes (7)...Arizona is last in NFL rushing offense (76.4 yards per game) and yards per carry (3.3)...Cardinals have allowed a league-high 26 touchdown passes, but have forced a league-high-tying 13 lost fumbles... Arizona cornerback Rod Hood (ribs) and linebacker Clark Haggans (foot) both questionable for Sunday...Rams linebacker Chris Draft (foot) remains out... Rams punter Donnie Jones leads the league in punting average (49.7)... Cardinals released punter Dirk Johnson earlier this week and signed ex-Jet Ben Graham to replace him.

Fast Fact: The Cardinals' four-game winning streak over the Rams is their longest in the series since 1937-38, when the Chicago Cardinals defeated the Cleveland Rams in the first four meetings between the two.

Prediction: After a couple of weeks of looking like the same old Cardinals, Arizona will again play like a postseason-worthy football team. Cardinals 38, Rams 6.

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Dallas (8-4) at Pittsburgh (9-3), Sunday, 4:15 (Pittsburgh -3)

Storylines: Cowboys are 3-0 since the return of quarterback Tony Romo from a finger injury, and currently occupy one of two Wild Card spots in the NFC... Steelers can clinch a playoff berth with a win and losses for the Dolphins and Patriots...Dallas defensive back Adam Jones expected to play after missing the past six games due to suspension...Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo leads the NFL in passer rating (103.2), and Dallas is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes (24)...Pittsburgh is No. 1 in the league in total defense (238 yards per game), scoring defense (14.2 points per game), passing defense (166.8 yards per game), rushing defense (71.2 yards per game), yards allowed per carry (3.1), rushes allowed of 20 yards or longer (2) and sacks (42)... Dallas outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware leads the lead in sacks (15)... Steelers safety Troy Polamalu leads the NFL in interceptions (6)...Pittsburgh outside linebacker LaMarr Woodley is tied for the NFL lead in defensive fumble recoveries (4)...Cowboys lead the league in fourth-down percentage (85.7 percent), and Steelers are last in the same category (20 percent).

Fast Fact: The Cowboys are 2-0 in Pittsburgh since last losing there in 1988.

Prediction: Steelers won't put consistent pressure on quick-triggered Romo, while Ben Roethlisberger will see DaMarcus Ware in his nightmares. Cowboys 24, Steelers 17.

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Washington (7-5) at Baltimore (8-4), Sunday, 8:15 (Baltimore -5)

Storylines: First game in 2008 "flexed" from its original timeslot as part of NBC's Sunday night package...Ravens are 6-1 since starting the year 2-3, are a game back of Pittsburgh in the AFC North, and currently occupy one of two Wild Card spots in the AFC...Redskins are 1-3 in their last four games, and are one back of the final Wild Card position in the NFC...Washington running back Clinton Portis (neck) and linebacker London Fletcher (foot) both expected to play...Ravens running back Willis McGahee expected to play after not garnering a carry in last week's win at Cincinnati...Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown 11 touchdown passes versus two interceptions during the Ravens' 6-1 run...Redskins have thrown an NFL-low four interceptions on the year... Baltimore is No. 1 in the league in INTs (20)...Ravens are allowing opponents to convert a league-low 51.2 percent of completions, 30.3 percent of third- down opportunities, and 8.3 of fourth-down chances...Baltimore is tied for the league lead in safeties recorded (3)...Ravens have allowed an NFL-worst two kickoff returns for touchdowns.

Fast Fact: Washington is 0-9 in Baltimore since scoring its only win there in 1955, and is 1-10 in Charm City all-time.

Prediction: Ravens haven't won as ugly as usual this year, but will have to grind this one out against a Washington team in desperation mode. Ravens 10, Redskins 6.

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Tampa Bay (9-3) at Carolina (9-3), Monday, 8:30 (Carolina -3)

Storylines: Battle for first place in the NFC South has Panthers trying to avenge a 27-3 loss to Tampa Bay on Oct. 12th...Carolina currently occupies No. 1 Wild Card spot in the NFC...Buccaneers seeking their first home-and-home sweep of the Panthers since 2002, when they made their lone trip to the Super Bowl...Tampa Bay quarterback Jeff Garcia has won five straight starts against the Panthers...Carolina running back DeAngelo Williams is tied for the NFL lead in touchdowns (13), and ran for a franchise record four TDs in last week's 35-31 win at Green Bay...Buccaneers have allowed an NFL-low one rushing touchdown...Panthers return man Mark Jones is the reigning NFC Special Teams Player of the Week after recording 201 combined return yards in last week's 35-31 win at Green Bay...Tampa Bay kicker Matt Bryant is tied for the NFL lead in field goals made (28)...Buccaneers' Clifton Smith leads the league in kickoff return average (29.5)...Panthers have surrendered a league-high two blocked punts for touchdowns.

Fast Fact: Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams (13 touchdowns) needs four touchdowns over his final four games to break the Carolina single-season record in that category, set by wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad with 16 in 2004.

Prediction: Blowout in mid-October wasn't an aberration - the Buccaneers are better than the Panthers. Buccaneers 20, Panthers 16.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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