Cubs top Dodgers to keep pace in NL Central

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2007 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark DeRosa finished 3-for-4 with two RBI and two runs scored, and the Chicago Cubs topped the Los Angeles Dodgers, 8-2, in the third of a four-game set.

Ted Lilly (14-7) held the Dodgers to six hits and two runs through 6 2/3 innings, fanning three and walking one for the Cubs, who had dropped the first two games of the series. Chicago remained a half-game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Milwaukee routed the Astros, 14-2, on Wednesday.

Aramis Ramirez homered for the Cubs, who will try to earn the series split on Thursday afternoon.

Eric Stults (1-3) fared better at the plate then he did on the mound, as he went 2-for-2, but gave up eight hits and four runs -- three earned -- in 4 1/3 innings, with two strikeouts and two walks. Mike Lieberthal went 1-for-3 and scored twice for the Dodgers, who saw their three-game win streak come to an end.

Los Angeles remained in a tie with the Phillies for second place in the wild- card race, 3 1/2 games back of the Padres and Diamondbacks, who are tied for the NL West and wild card leads. San Diego and Arizona played each other later Wednesday night.

The Cubs took the early lead in the second on Geovany Soto's RBI single to left. Ramirez extended the lead to 3-0 in the third when, with two outs and a man on, he ripped a shot to left, his 20th homer of the season.

Lieberthal doubled to right with one out in the fifth, moved to third on a single by Stults, and came home on Rafael Furcal's sacrifice fly. DeRosa roped a one-out double to center in the fifth, though, and Derrek Lee got one run right back with his RBI single to right.

Pinch-hitter Olmedo Saenz roped an RBI double to center in the seventh to make it a two-run game, but the Cubs broke it open with a four-spot in the eighth. Soto worked a one-out walk, and quickly came home on Ryan Theriot's pinch- double to right. Theriot then stole third, and was driven in by Jacque Jones' single to center. Alfonso Soriano kept the inning going with a double to left, and then DeRosa singled to left, plating two more runs to give the Cubs a six-run cushion.

Game Notes

Chicago improved to 5-4 on their 10-game homestand. Of the Cubs' 35 runs on the homestand, 21 have come in the sixth inning or later...Lilly is now one win shy of becoming the first Cubs lefty to record 15 wins since Greg Hibbard in 1993.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.