Bears and 'Horns duke it out in Lone Star State showdown

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/02/2009 - Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Longhorns have been a bit inconsistent this season, and they will play host to the Baylor Bears this evening in a Big 12 Conference affair.

On Saturday, Texas fell to Oklahoma State in a 68-59 final, as theLonghorns simply didn't play well enough at the offensive end to win. They are now 19-9 overall, including 8-6 in league play, and a loss tonight could potentially hurt the team's chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament as an at-large selection. Fortunately for Texas, it is 12-2 at home this season and is taking on a Baylor squad that is 2-6 on the road.

The Bears dropped back-to-back road decisions to Oklahoma State and Iowa State before halting that skid with a 75-57 home win over Colorado on Saturday. Still, the Bears' 5-9 conference record clearly overshadows a 17-11 overall mark.

Texas beat Baylor by a 78-72 final in Waco back on January 27th, and the Longhorns own a commanding 154-75 advantage in the all-time series between the Lone Star State rivals.

Curtis Jerrells was tremendous for Baylor in Saturday's romp over Colorado, as the talented guard poured in 29 points on 8-of-12 shooting from the floor and 10-of-11 from the foul line. LaceDarius Dunn added 10 points for the Bears, who shot 52.2 percent from the field and earned a 21-14 edge in points from the charity stripe. A 32-22 rebounding advantage also helped the cause. Through 28 games, Jerrells is averaging 16.4 ppg to go along with 142 assists. Dunn checks in with 15.0 ppg, and he has come off the bench in all but four games this season. Kevin Rogers provides 12.3 ppg and 7.5 rpg, while Tweety Carter contributes 11.8 ppg. Henry Dugat rounds out a group of five double- digit scorers for the Bears, who are surrendering 77.1 ppg to conference opponents.

There is no doubt that Texas relies heavily on the duo of A.J. Abrams and Damion James to carry the load at the offensive end. Abrams is scoring 17.0 ppg despite his 39.3 percent field goal efficiency, and he is as streaky as they come. James is an ultra-athletic forward who brings 15.8 ppg and 9.4 rpg to the floor. The third and final double-digit scorer on the UT roster is Gary Johnson with his 11.3 ppg. Unfortunately, the Longhorns connected on only 31.5 percent of their field goal attempts against Oklahoma State on Saturday and finished with just seven assists against 15 turnovers. Texas was also outscored 19-7 from the foul line in defeat. James posted 18 points and 18 boards in the setback, while Dexter Pittman and Harrison Smith tallied 12 points apiece.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.